(These have subsequently been incorporated into Wagner's illicit trafficking network linking western Sudan, CAR, and the East Africa coast). Wagner struck a deal with some of the rebels to secure diamond mines in the north of the country. President Faustin-Archange Touadéra welcomed 400 Wagner "instructors" in 2018 ostensibly to help fend off a collection of rebel groups. The experience of the Central African Republic (CAR) provides a roadmap. It's not hard to imagine how this could turn out badly. The essence of the prospective Wagner deal, then, is an unaccountable junta leader vying to bring in unaccountable mercenaries. In the case of Goïta, who has mounted two coups and consistently ignored ECOWAS' stipulations on the transition, he's not even beholden to a constitution. This elite cooption sequence is facilitated when it involves an autocratic leader who lacks other checks and balances. The essence is an unaccountable junta leader vying to bring in unaccountable mercenaries. These leaders are then indebted to Russia who assumes the role of regional powerbroker. Borrowing from its Syria playbook, Moscow has followed a pattern of parachuting in to prop up politically isolated leaders facing crises in regionally pivotal countries, often with abundant natural resources. With coup leader Colonel Assimi Goïta at the helm, Mali has been especially ripe for the picking as part of Russia's asymmetric influence campaign in Africa.
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